Beyond the UNGA's being the show of government leaders with levers of power, what are the implications of the such broad and appealing agenda for peace for the Oromo people and others in Ethiopia fighting for rights, equality and self-governance?
Bloggers at Oromo Press have tweeted about the travel of the "New" Ethiopian Prime Minster Hailemariam Desalegn to New York to attend the UN plenary meetings and other specific regional meeting focusing on Somalia and the the Horn of Africa. Hashtags targeting "Oromo", "UNGA", "Ethiopia" were used as ways of getting the conversations picked up globally by those who search twitter on the UNGA and Ethiopia. This is not to chronicle the life and travel of Ato Hailemariam Desalegn, as some among us have chronicled the death of Meles Zenawi in more detail than Tigireans themselves have done, but to point out how he does not have agenda for peace, conflict resolution and preventative diplomacy for the Oromo and the rest in Ethiopia and the Horn. This is to say that he is a messenger of war, but not of peace.
The EPRDF is trying to sell a line of propaganda that roughly attempts to advertise post-Zenawi Ethiopia as "a New Ethiopia," meaning no more dictatorship since the empire has a new unelected PM hailing from the minority Walayita people. "New Ethiopia" is a fabrication because the death of one tyrant just led to the replacement by another in a completely intact Ethiopian state system--still mono-ethnically controlled by Tigirean elites. Hailemariam Desalign is a great opportunity for these all-powerful elites who control the army and the resources of the nation. The idea/plan is to use him as the Trojan Horse to continue attacking the long disfranchised and abused Oromo and others peoples of the south. The idea is also to deny that it is not the Tigreans who are doing massive rights abuses and genocidal campaigns any more. "Look it is somebody else in power!" kind of responsibility dodging!
Given that the agenda at the UN is mostly focused on the Middle East and southeast Asia, neither Hailemariam Desalegn nor sub-Saharan Africa will be featured as important in the so-called GA debates. They are more like agenda-setting speeches than debates. However, Desalegn will still have the opportunity to hoodwink the world since he is from the Horn of Africa, a region that obviously receives relatively higher attention compared to the rest of Africa.
The catch words and phrases are that he is going to continue to play and sell himself as "the new linchpin" against Islamic extremism in the region. In so doing, he will become the the resurrected ghost of Zenawi in the eyes of the West. He is continuing repressive measures against the growing demand for religious rights and autonomy by Ethiopian Muslims. Like his predecessor did, he will sternly misrepresent legitimate Muslim grievances as an incitement to Islamic extremism or may even dub it "terrorism". The state-controlled Ethiopian Television signposted that the unknown PM is participating in the UN GA in a way that extends the national and regional legacies and policies of the late dictator Meles Zenawi. Ato Desalegn will try to take the fame the international community manufactured for Zenawi for himself and wear it like a traditional Habesha "Shemma" garment or debelo for the same purpose--of promoting one-party and mono-ethnic group hegemony and apartheid in a fundamentally multinational setting. This soaring Tigirean arrogance have squashed the religious and ethnonational diversity of the nation over the last 21 years and the situation won't be any different under the rookie dictator.
The catch words and phrases are that he is going to continue to play and sell himself as "the new linchpin" against Islamic extremism in the region. In so doing, he will become the the resurrected ghost of Zenawi in the eyes of the West. He is continuing repressive measures against the growing demand for religious rights and autonomy by Ethiopian Muslims. Like his predecessor did, he will sternly misrepresent legitimate Muslim grievances as an incitement to Islamic extremism or may even dub it "terrorism". The state-controlled Ethiopian Television signposted that the unknown PM is participating in the UN GA in a way that extends the national and regional legacies and policies of the late dictator Meles Zenawi. Ato Desalegn will try to take the fame the international community manufactured for Zenawi for himself and wear it like a traditional Habesha "Shemma" garment or debelo for the same purpose--of promoting one-party and mono-ethnic group hegemony and apartheid in a fundamentally multinational setting. This soaring Tigirean arrogance have squashed the religious and ethnonational diversity of the nation over the last 21 years and the situation won't be any different under the rookie dictator.
Making a speech at the GA plenary and attending a special meeting on current developments in Somalia will be some of the "To Dos" that Hailemariam Desalegn has to attend to. Somalia continues to be a bargaining chip for a continued Western-funded dictatorship and rights abuses against the Oromo and others one more time by the new Trojan Horse. The regime will mean more rape for women and girls, more political prisoners, the dispersion of and separation of families, more wars and evictions of farmers, more internally displaced peoples and more strife and mourning. It will never mean more development and stability unless a broad-based reform or revolution takes place involving large populations like the Oromo and south.
Apart from the fact that this can be a completely overwhelming first international appearance for the rookie tyrant, it highlights the continuation of the same old war and conflict policies in Oromia, Ogaden and the south by the ruling TPLF/EPRDF party; this time by using a Waliyita man as a protective glove against the bloodshed. His goal is to deny these wars and conflicts exist contrary to the UN's agenda this year. The injustices and the inequalities will continue despite the local woes. His main task is also to bolster the image of the ruling Tigrean-dominated regime as a "pro-democracy, peace, development" government. He will sell Ethiopia as steadfast and mindless Western ally on counter-terrorism in the Horn of Africa. He demonstrated this with statements he made on the UN Mini Summit on Somalia, reiterating that Ethiopia will continue its traditional bullying role in the region.
By posing as a mediator (an intervener) in the remaining conflicts between Sudan and South Sudan, Ethiopia is seeking its own legitimacy. Somalia and Sudan directly play roles of legitimating Ethiopia-cum-Tigire elites who act as "mediators" and "regional peacekeepers"--much like wolf in sheep's clothing. Nothing is inherently wrong with mediating conflicts , but the problem is that Ethiopia has its own ongoing intrastate armed conflicts with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Ogaden Liberation Front (ONLF), and a dozen of smaller other rebellions that it has been actively hiding from the international community or misrepresenting these movements as "terrorists" or "narrow nationalisms". The reality is that OLF, ONLF, and Ginbot7 were pushed out of peaceful politics by the very intolerant Tigire People's Liberation Front (TPLF) at various times.
It does not make any sense that Ethiopia tries to solve other countries' problems while peoples inside its own territory suffer protracted ethnonational conflicts as much as peoples in Darfur, South Sudan and Somalia. The only difference is the conflicts in Ethiopia have not been given enough international attention since the elites are helping out in the war on terrorism in the region. In exchange, they obviously get the silence from major donors who deny they don't have leverage over Ethiopia.
The likely scenario of frustrating the masses in conflict regions such as Oromia,Gambella, SNNP, Ogaden, Amara and Afrar will be an inevitable ugly break-up of Ethiopia like former Yugoslavia. Then, situations will be out of control for the UN or the African Union, especially if the minority government carries out an all-out genocidal violence against others in the south and the rebels try to counter that in order to protect their populations. Without exaggerating, the Rwanda genocide situation can not be ruled out in Oromia-Ethiopia if things continue on the current path. There is no reason to believe this won't happen because the minority-controlled Ethiopian state is fragile, hyperparanoid,hyperfearful and insecure as ever. Fear and the perception of the inability to control the state as the private property of Tigrean elites will ignite the "landmine". Tigreans elites are not willing to give up power or resources to the rest of nation, which have been fueling violence and counter-violence.
It is foolish and reckless to start conflict resolution in Ethiopia 40 years later when everything is torn beyond repair or when some people are wiped off the map. 21 years have already lapsed without a modicum of peace, thanks to the complicity of the international community in conflicts in Ethiopia.
Imagine how many lives could have been saved and how much property could have been saved from senseless destruction if Somalia were to get its acts together much earlier than now. Now, most Somali warring actors seem to have given up on violence not because they desire peace, but because Somalian civilians have had enough of the violence. It seems that violence has little following from Somalian civilians anymore. They belatedly learned it is not a sustainable path. Do we want to go that path in Ethiopia? The right thing to do is to hold the international community to its own words on conflict prevention and to pressure the Tigire elites to give in to some sort of negotiation. Of course, that requires multi-pronged domestic struggles and coalitions against injustice and mono-ethnic apartheid system, where the faces of the oppressors and the oppressed are both black and hard to tell apart for outsiders. That does not make it less of an apartheid nevertheless. It just means that the similarity of skins have masked the differences and the sufferings of some.
By posing as a mediator (an intervener) in the remaining conflicts between Sudan and South Sudan, Ethiopia is seeking its own legitimacy. Somalia and Sudan directly play roles of legitimating Ethiopia-cum-Tigire elites who act as "mediators" and "regional peacekeepers"--much like wolf in sheep's clothing. Nothing is inherently wrong with mediating conflicts , but the problem is that Ethiopia has its own ongoing intrastate armed conflicts with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Ogaden Liberation Front (ONLF), and a dozen of smaller other rebellions that it has been actively hiding from the international community or misrepresenting these movements as "terrorists" or "narrow nationalisms". The reality is that OLF, ONLF, and Ginbot7 were pushed out of peaceful politics by the very intolerant Tigire People's Liberation Front (TPLF) at various times.
It does not make any sense that Ethiopia tries to solve other countries' problems while peoples inside its own territory suffer protracted ethnonational conflicts as much as peoples in Darfur, South Sudan and Somalia. The only difference is the conflicts in Ethiopia have not been given enough international attention since the elites are helping out in the war on terrorism in the region. In exchange, they obviously get the silence from major donors who deny they don't have leverage over Ethiopia.
The likely scenario of frustrating the masses in conflict regions such as Oromia,Gambella, SNNP, Ogaden, Amara and Afrar will be an inevitable ugly break-up of Ethiopia like former Yugoslavia. Then, situations will be out of control for the UN or the African Union, especially if the minority government carries out an all-out genocidal violence against others in the south and the rebels try to counter that in order to protect their populations. Without exaggerating, the Rwanda genocide situation can not be ruled out in Oromia-Ethiopia if things continue on the current path. There is no reason to believe this won't happen because the minority-controlled Ethiopian state is fragile, hyperparanoid,hyperfearful and insecure as ever. Fear and the perception of the inability to control the state as the private property of Tigrean elites will ignite the "landmine". Tigreans elites are not willing to give up power or resources to the rest of nation, which have been fueling violence and counter-violence.
It is foolish and reckless to start conflict resolution in Ethiopia 40 years later when everything is torn beyond repair or when some people are wiped off the map. 21 years have already lapsed without a modicum of peace, thanks to the complicity of the international community in conflicts in Ethiopia.
Imagine how many lives could have been saved and how much property could have been saved from senseless destruction if Somalia were to get its acts together much earlier than now. Now, most Somali warring actors seem to have given up on violence not because they desire peace, but because Somalian civilians have had enough of the violence. It seems that violence has little following from Somalian civilians anymore. They belatedly learned it is not a sustainable path. Do we want to go that path in Ethiopia? The right thing to do is to hold the international community to its own words on conflict prevention and to pressure the Tigire elites to give in to some sort of negotiation. Of course, that requires multi-pronged domestic struggles and coalitions against injustice and mono-ethnic apartheid system, where the faces of the oppressors and the oppressed are both black and hard to tell apart for outsiders. That does not make it less of an apartheid nevertheless. It just means that the similarity of skins have masked the differences and the sufferings of some.
It would be easy for Hailemariam Desalegn to settle into this status quo defense role because he is already being given covers by the USAID, the U.S., and even by the Secretary General of the UN. Rajashah on behalf of the USAID has already tweeted this about Ethiopia and Kenya: "@RajShah #Kenya and #Ethiopia have real plans and structures to help communities combat vulnerability to crisis #UNGA #Resilience", @Rajshah this time last year we were responding to the worst drought in 60 years in #Horn of #Africa http://usaid.gov/resiliency#UNGA #resiliency" Real plans? What are you talking about man?
These kinds of dangerous view from the aid industry deserves: "...Father, forgive them; for they know not what they do. And they parted his raiment, and cast lots." In our case, the garb is the international commentators' acts of unfairly tramping on the freedoms and the well-being of the large masses of Ethiopia's oppressed south, including the Oromo.
These kinds of dangerous view from the aid industry deserves: "...Father, forgive them; for they know not what they do. And they parted his raiment, and cast lots." In our case, the garb is the international commentators' acts of unfairly tramping on the freedoms and the well-being of the large masses of Ethiopia's oppressed south, including the Oromo.
Certainly, Hailemarima Desalegn will simply exploit the language/script of development by building on and extending the preexisting propaganda developments plans such as the "Growth and Transformation Plan" (GTP) and the Hidase Gidib mantra and so on. His speech would be just a version of ETV propaganda on the global stage in front of like-minded dictators, without the booing. He will also receive condolences for Meles Zenawi from others leaders that he will convey to his ghost bosses who have real power when he returns.
So, the debate over conflict resolution and preventative diplomacy at the UNGA may not mean anything for the people of the Horn in general and for those in Oromia and Ethiopia who are sick and tired of their leaders talking down to them from higher places. Unfortunately, the talkers will talk and the wars shall continue against the will of the vast majority of peoples.
Hailemariam Desalign will achieve his goal of seeking legitimacy for himself and for ethnic Tigire elites. They will use him as a Torjan Horse against the Oromo and the south, at lest until the end of the late Zenawi's term of office in 2015. If indeed he won't have his own independent thinking and decision-making ability as opposed to Zenawi, this man could prove even more dangerous for the Oromo and others. This can be so if he can be manipulated at any instruction from the generals and others in the TPLF. That time will tell.
Hailemariam Desalign will achieve his goal of seeking legitimacy for himself and for ethnic Tigire elites. They will use him as a Torjan Horse against the Oromo and the south, at lest until the end of the late Zenawi's term of office in 2015. If indeed he won't have his own independent thinking and decision-making ability as opposed to Zenawi, this man could prove even more dangerous for the Oromo and others. This can be so if he can be manipulated at any instruction from the generals and others in the TPLF. That time will tell.
What are important in talking up or writing up about this high-level meetings are not really about expecting any changes in the global order, which won't happen unless the citizens of the world demand it fiercely for the sake of peace and human security. It is to show how important it is that we engage on new media technologies such as Twitter, with targeted and professional tweeting like the following done by volunteer bloggers at Oromo Press:
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Foottweets:
IRONY: ETH PM at UN GA hiding many INTERNAL WARS againstOROMO and the REST, but acting as PEACE-BUILDER in Sudan#UN#Oromo #Ethiopia
Desalegn is thought of as a figurehead for continuing Tigirean repressive policies gainst Oromo. A Trojan horse? #Oromo #UN#Ethiopia
If the current Tigire minority dominance continues, Ethiopia is likely to go the Syrian-AlAsad way #UN GA #Ethiopia #Oromo # CONFLICT
Lotsof talk about conflict resolution, preventative diplomacy at UNGA. Spare some of that for#Oromo# Ethiopia.USAID creating problems#UNGA